Key points in the lead up to the war on Tigray

Some truths 

The truth as I see it and the wheels that set in motion the trajectory for Abiy Ahmeds assent to power. This is what I stand by until further evidence proves me wrong. The order of things may be incorrect and there are a lot of gaps because I haven’t been able to get to other regions to find out their full stories. 

  1. 2005 elections disgruntled many opposition political parties
  2. Informants start complaining to the USA (Wikileaks) 
  3. USA and other partners start pushing Democratic programs in Ethiopia (Wikileaks)
  4. Political opposition parties run for exile to avoid court proceedings and charges
  5. 2008 Berhanu Nega and Andargachew Tsige start Ginbot 7 political movement and partners with other anti-government groups. Designed to challenge the current Ethiopian Constitutional ideology and framework
  6. 2009 attempted governmental coup by Ginbot 7
  7. 2009 five key organisers og Ginbot 7 are sentenced to death 1 in country, 4 in absenteeism
  8. 2010 ESAT media is formed and anti-woyane rhetoric is dominated over the diaspora community 
  9. 2012 Meles dies 
  10. Hailemariam is in power and re-elected in 2015
  11. 2015 Addis Abeba administration and federal government rollout the Addis Abeba expansion project 
  12. Surrounding Oromo families displaced and inaccurately compensated 
  13. 2016 Ongoing Oromo protests pushed changed in EPRDF leadership
  14. 2018 Hailiemariam resigns 
  15. Lemma Mergessa was to be appointed 
  16. Abiy is instead 
  17. 2018 Sahle-Work Zewde is appointed President 
  18. 2018 Exiled Abune Merkorios of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewehado church is reinstated as co-Patriarch via the insistence of Abiy
  19. Abiy promises democratic reforms. Millions believe him
  20. Abiy allows all in exile to return with impunity (including leaders of Ginbot 7 who went on to form new parties and take up governmental positions)
  21. Abiy makes peace with Eritrea and is given the Nobel peace prize
  22. Roads into Tigray via Amhara region had been blocked off for a long time before the war started, commencing a siege on business. Only road access for a lot of time was through afar region causing massive delays on the detour roads
  23. December 2019 Abiy forms Prosperity Party (pp) 
  24. The dissolution of the eprdf was unconstitutional and the pp had no mandate to rule without being elected and some state leaders refused to join
  25. The “law and order” missions commenced in regions who resisted pp
  26. Politicians from Oromia and other  regions who opposed Abiy were jailed 
  27. Abiy forms his new cabinet from those who submitted to the pp
  28. Oromo Qerroo and Qarree protestors who didn’t join the pp movement were killed or missing
  29. OLF and OLA split and OLA stations themselves in rural Oromia
  30. Tplf members of the federal body are told to return to Mekelle as their parties representation at the federal level was no longer recognised and their only mandate was in Tigray
  31. Attempts were made by the TPLF and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) to have discussions with Abiy about their concerns. They were rejected. 
  32. Communications blackouts and Ethiopian military command post set up  with people held as political prisoners all over western Oromia
  33. OLA start to advance areas of military command posts in order to free civilians from mass arrests 
  34. High profile assassinations take place with no conclusive investigations of murders
  35. Seare Mekonen (Tigrayan chief of general staff of the Ethiopian national defence force) assassinated and replaced by Aden Mohammed (of Amhara ethnic group)
  36. Federal gov postpone elections
  37. Hacchalu Hundessa assassinated (Oromian singer and political activist) 
  38. Oromian Qeerro and Qarree protests and further mass killings of those opposing the give
  39. Further political arrests take place, including Jawar Mohammed and Bekele Gerba of the OFC
  40. Elections take place in Tigray
  41. PP could have put a legitimate candidate forward in the Tigray elections
  42. Tplf  won elections in Tigray
  43. Tigray budget is ceased on hold 
  44. The 2020 locust invasion destroying many crops all over country especially Tigray and Amhara raya regions
  45. Abiy did not allocate any of the budget to help fight the locusts in Tigray
  46. Abiy’s government stole tigray purchased drones from bole airport. designed to spray farms with insecticides and kill off locusts. 
  47. The changing of the currency was an excuse to enter tigray and attempt to arrest certain members of the tplf 
  48. Roads from Amhara region were unblocked and troops from neighbouring Amhara region had been entering tigray weeks before the 4th November 2020
  49. 4th November 2020 shelling started in Humera, Tigray from Eritrean side of the border coinciding with the telecommunications and electrical and banking blackout in Tigray
  50. The Tigrayan generals gained control of the northern command
  51. The fog of war begins. Total black out and nothing is truly known yet except the massacres and rapes that have been reported
  52. International media is banned from all of Ethiopia 
  53. Interim pp gov appointed to Mekelle and minimal services restored
  54. Some clarity is given with restoration of power and communications 
  55. Tigrayan’s in government and military positions outside of Tigray are purged from office and duties and businesses closed
  56. Abuna Mathias (Patriach) placed under house arrest
  57. Tigrayans begin to be arrested around Ethiopia
  58. June 2021 TDF regrouped and used great military skills to gain the upper hand 
  59. Interim unelected gov flee Mekelle 
  60. Mekelle is controlled by TDF and thousands of POWs are jailed
  61. International aid workers killed by unknown troops of either ENDF, fano or Eritrean military 
  62. Tplf reinstates it’s elected position 
  63. ENDF, fano and Eritrean Army is pushed out of Raya
  64. Western Tigray is still occupied
  65. Communications, electricity and banking is down again and another fog of war sets in 
  66. Minimal communications via satellite is possible.
  67. Media from tigray starts being able to cover stories in Tigray. Some fog is lifted 
  68. Tdf advance to Amhara and afar regions to clear roads for aid. Fog of war is back with only few reports shared. 
  69. No international media allowed in Amhara and Afar region
  70. Increase of Tigrayan mass arrests in Addis Abeba and further closure of businesses
  71. Aid is still being looted and prevented from entering tigray 
  72. Tdf gain access to aid stores and transport them to tigray
  73. First airdrop was looted at bole airport
  74. Reports of people dying from hunger 

With so many unknowns, I knowingly take a risk to trust the efficacy of TDF and the current leaders of the TPLF to be able to get Tigray out of this mess. 

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