Some truths
The truth as I see it and the wheels that set in motion the trajectory for Abiy Ahmeds assent to power. This is what I stand by until further evidence proves me wrong. The order of things may be incorrect and there are a lot of gaps because I haven’t been able to get to other regions to find out their full stories.
- 2005 elections disgruntled many opposition political parties
- Informants start complaining to the USA (Wikileaks)
- USA and other partners start pushing Democratic programs in Ethiopia (Wikileaks)
- Political opposition parties run for exile to avoid court proceedings and charges
- 2008 Berhanu Nega and Andargachew Tsige start Ginbot 7 political movement and partners with other anti-government groups. Designed to challenge the current Ethiopian Constitutional ideology and framework
- 2009 attempted governmental coup by Ginbot 7
- 2009 five key organisers og Ginbot 7 are sentenced to death 1 in country, 4 in absenteeism
- 2010 ESAT media is formed and anti-woyane rhetoric is dominated over the diaspora community
- 2012 Meles dies
- Hailemariam is in power and re-elected in 2015
- 2015 Addis Abeba administration and federal government rollout the Addis Abeba expansion project
- Surrounding Oromo families displaced and inaccurately compensated
- 2016 Ongoing Oromo protests pushed changed in EPRDF leadership
- 2018 Hailiemariam resigns
- Lemma Mergessa was to be appointed
- Abiy is instead
- 2018 Sahle-Work Zewde is appointed President
- 2018 Exiled Abune Merkorios of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewehado church is reinstated as co-Patriarch via the insistence of Abiy
- Abiy promises democratic reforms. Millions believe him
- Abiy allows all in exile to return with impunity (including leaders of Ginbot 7 who went on to form new parties and take up governmental positions)
- Abiy makes peace with Eritrea and is given the Nobel peace prize
- Roads into Tigray via Amhara region had been blocked off for a long time before the war started, commencing a siege on business. Only road access for a lot of time was through afar region causing massive delays on the detour roads
- December 2019 Abiy forms Prosperity Party (pp)
- The dissolution of the eprdf was unconstitutional and the pp had no mandate to rule without being elected and some state leaders refused to join
- The “law and order” missions commenced in regions who resisted pp
- Politicians from Oromia and other regions who opposed Abiy were jailed
- Abiy forms his new cabinet from those who submitted to the pp
- Oromo Qerroo and Qarree protestors who didn’t join the pp movement were killed or missing
- OLF and OLA split and OLA stations themselves in rural Oromia
- Tplf members of the federal body are told to return to Mekelle as their parties representation at the federal level was no longer recognised and their only mandate was in Tigray
- Attempts were made by the TPLF and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) to have discussions with Abiy about their concerns. They were rejected.
- Communications blackouts and Ethiopian military command post set up with people held as political prisoners all over western Oromia
- OLA start to advance areas of military command posts in order to free civilians from mass arrests
- High profile assassinations take place with no conclusive investigations of murders
- Seare Mekonen (Tigrayan chief of general staff of the Ethiopian national defence force) assassinated and replaced by Aden Mohammed (of Amhara ethnic group)
- Federal gov postpone elections
- Hacchalu Hundessa assassinated (Oromian singer and political activist)
- Oromian Qeerro and Qarree protests and further mass killings of those opposing the give
- Further political arrests take place, including Jawar Mohammed and Bekele Gerba of the OFC
- Elections take place in Tigray
- PP could have put a legitimate candidate forward in the Tigray elections
- Tplf won elections in Tigray
- Tigray budget is ceased on hold
- The 2020 locust invasion destroying many crops all over country especially Tigray and Amhara raya regions
- Abiy did not allocate any of the budget to help fight the locusts in Tigray
- Abiy’s government stole tigray purchased drones from bole airport. designed to spray farms with insecticides and kill off locusts.
- The changing of the currency was an excuse to enter tigray and attempt to arrest certain members of the tplf
- Roads from Amhara region were unblocked and troops from neighbouring Amhara region had been entering tigray weeks before the 4th November 2020
- 4th November 2020 shelling started in Humera, Tigray from Eritrean side of the border coinciding with the telecommunications and electrical and banking blackout in Tigray
- The Tigrayan generals gained control of the northern command
- The fog of war begins. Total black out and nothing is truly known yet except the massacres and rapes that have been reported
- International media is banned from all of Ethiopia
- Interim pp gov appointed to Mekelle and minimal services restored
- Some clarity is given with restoration of power and communications
- Tigrayan’s in government and military positions outside of Tigray are purged from office and duties and businesses closed
- Abuna Mathias (Patriach) placed under house arrest
- Tigrayans begin to be arrested around Ethiopia
- June 2021 TDF regrouped and used great military skills to gain the upper hand
- Interim unelected gov flee Mekelle
- Mekelle is controlled by TDF and thousands of POWs are jailed
- International aid workers killed by unknown troops of either ENDF, fano or Eritrean military
- Tplf reinstates it’s elected position
- ENDF, fano and Eritrean Army is pushed out of Raya
- Western Tigray is still occupied
- Communications, electricity and banking is down again and another fog of war sets in
- Minimal communications via satellite is possible.
- Media from tigray starts being able to cover stories in Tigray. Some fog is lifted
- Tdf advance to Amhara and afar regions to clear roads for aid. Fog of war is back with only few reports shared.
- No international media allowed in Amhara and Afar region
- Increase of Tigrayan mass arrests in Addis Abeba and further closure of businesses
- Aid is still being looted and prevented from entering tigray
- Tdf gain access to aid stores and transport them to tigray
- First airdrop was looted at bole airport
- Reports of people dying from hunger
With so many unknowns, I knowingly take a risk to trust the efficacy of TDF and the current leaders of the TPLF to be able to get Tigray out of this mess.